Dallas Fed April manufacturing index -2.3 vs -0.2 prior

Prior was -0.2 Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022 This is a much better-than-expected print on the activity side. Production jumped more than 12 points to 19.0, capacity utilization did basically the same thing, and shipments ripped from a near-flat 1.8 to 15.0. Those are big moves and they suggest Texas factories actually had a pretty good April once you get past the noisy headline. The general business activity index slipped a touch further into negative territory at -2.3, but the company outlook flipped positive and uncertainty came down meaningfully — firms are feeling better about themselves even if they're still cautious on the broader picture. The catch, as always lately, is prices, which continue to rise. Employment is still a touch negative and capex came off a little, so this isn't a full-throated boom. But for a regional survey that's been muddling along near zero for months, the production and shipments numbers are the standout. The trouble is the Fed has to look at finished-goods pricing this hot and decide whether the activity rebound is the story or the inflation pulse is. The comments are worth a scroll. The aluminum extruders are cheering Section 232 clarifications. The printers are, in their words, watching demand go "slower than we can recall in many years." A food manufacturer flags "the long-term effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is yet to be felt" — which is the kind of sentence you really don't want showing up in a regional Fed survey. Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing We are starting to see some upward pressure on prices, especially with food and anything with a significant energy cost component. Fabricated metal product manufacturing Middle East conflict, and fuel prices add uncertainty to economic and demand outlook. April has returned back to flat, just as January and February were. Food manufacturing Feeling good about the economy right now based on orders and future business. Continued decline in consumer segment purchasing power as well as disarray at the federal level is impacting our customers, input costs, supply chain and financial viability. The long-term effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is yet to be felt. Machinery manufacturing Times are good, backlog is building, prices are firm and life is better! Thank the Lord for proactive leaders who understand business, deals and the economy. We are having many new business opportunities, and it appears from our perspective that the economy is starting to improve. Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing Diesel fuel cost increases are raising transportation cost for finished goods and raw materials. If they persist, we will have to raise prices. We are currently absorbing the cost. Paper manufacturing Prices of main raw materials are experiencing a 4-6 percent increase that will push an increase in our selling prices 30 days from now. Demand does not seem to warrant these coordinated increases for our suppliers. Plastics and rubber products manufacturing The geopolitical and war-related issues have significantly increased our costs and delays in our supply chain as unusual supply chain ramifications create havoc. Our retail supply business is very vulnerable at this time. The unpredictable future is challenging, to say the least. Primary metal manufacturing President Trump’s proclamation a couple of weeks ago on Section 232 tariffs cleared up ambiguity in the language that had allowed some importers of aluminum to avoid paying the 50 percent tariff on the full value of covered aluminum products. That clarification has already increased quoting activity with several companies, the majority of them in the building and construction industry, as they begin evaluating onshorin