Economic calendar in Asia. New Zealand job report. Japan remains on holiday. China reopens

New Zealand's labour market looked set to show continued slack heading into the first quarter of the year, with economists flagging that upcoming survey data would paint a picture of restrained hiring and subdued wage growth before the Middle East conflict began to weigh on the economy. Westpac economists expected the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% through the March quarter, with the Household Labour Force Survey likely showing employment edging 0.1% lower over the period. That modest decline was seen as a correction to what analysts viewed as an overstated 0.5% quarterly gain in the December survey, which had pointed to an unlikely surge in employment among workers under 25, a reading that tax-based data failed to corroborate. Labour force participation was also expected to pull back slightly after an elevated December reading, with economists suggesting the prior quarter's figure had similarly run ahead of underlying conditions. On wages, Westpac anticipated a 0.5% quarterly rise in the Labour Cost Index, keeping annual growth running at around 2%. Private sector wage pressures were seen as slightly softer, with a 0.4% quarterly increase pencilled in. Public sector pay, which tends to rise more sharply in March quarters, was forecast to climb 0.8% over the period, though annual growth would still ease from 2.2% to 2.0%. The forecasts came in below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's own projections from its February Monetary Policy Statement, which had assumed stronger jobs growth and a falling unemployment rate by this point. Westpac argued that an outcome in line with its more cautious estimates would reinforce the case for the RBNZ to hold off on raising the Official Cash Rate. However, analysts stressed the quarterly labour data would quickly be overshadowed by broader economic uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. The oil price shock was seen as capable of delaying hiring decisions, triggering layoffs and contributing to business failures, complicating the RBNZ's task of balancing near-term inflation pressures against the risk of longer-run inflation expectations becoming entrenched. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.