German factory orders jump in March on likely stockpiling due to Middle East conflict

Industrial orders +5.0% vs +1.0% m/m expected Prior +0.9%; revised to +1.4% That's a solid reading and even when you look at the details in excluding large orders, new orders in the manufacturing sector were 5.1% higher in March compared to the previous month. That marks the highest level since February 2023. The less volatile three-month comparison does show that industrial orders in Q1 2026 were down 4.1% compared to Q4 2025 though. That being said, it owes to a caveat amid a very high volume of large orders at the end of last year. Excluding large orders, new orders increased by 1.6% in the three-month comparison. Of note, the positive trend in new orders in the manufacturing sector in March was spread across almost all economic sectors. However, you have to wonder how much of this is tied to frontloading inventory and running up the orderbook in fear that supply chain issues will strike in the coming weeks/months amid the US-Iran conflict. Both domestic and foreign orders also picked up by 4.0% and 5.6% respectively on the month. The additional breakdown shows that the order intake for capital goods was 2.1% higher in March. Meanwhile, the order in take for intermediate goods was 9.2% higher and consumer goods being 7.3% higher on the month. Those reflect some sharp increases, which you'd typically associate with large orders (the more volatile component). However, that is not the case in March. So, I'd be more inclined to tie all of that to stockpiling and advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.