investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting the RBA, expected to hike by 25bp

Bank of Canada's Macklem backs Fed independence ahead of Powell departure RBA set to hike to 4.35% today. NAB sees cash rate peaking near 4.6%. Rabobank holds yen bull view despite poor run, eyes Hormuz as key risk Australian data: March household spending +1.6% m/m (prior +0.3%) Iran launches boats, missiles and drones at US warships in Hormuz confrontation Chevron chief compares Hormuz crisis to 1970s oil shocks as shortages loom S&P 500 target of 7,600 reaffirmed as Goldman warns on inflation and rate cut constraints Trump tariff refunds to begin May 12 as CBP processes $166bn in claims US edges closer to resuming Iran combat as ceasefire holds by a thread Australia April Services PMI (final) 50.7 (preliminary 50.3, prior 46.3) ECB forecasters slash growth and raise inflation outlook as energy shock bites Reminder, Japanese and mainland China markets are close again today, Tuesday, May 5, 2026 Saudi Arabia demands Hormuz guarantees as Israel braces for rapid Iran escalation Williams: Fed well positioned but energy price surge could prove worse than markets expect IMF says worst-case global economy warning is now the working assumption - oil shock hit investingLive Americas market news wrap: Iran strikes the UAE, oil prices jump At a glance: Crude futures edged lower after the prior session's gains, with APAC macro newsflow relatively light US military officials indicated they are closer to resuming combat operations against Iran than 24 hours earlier, raising geopolitical tension Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi struck a more conciliatory tone, saying there is no military solution to the Hormuz crisis and that Pakistan-mediated talks are making progress, while warning the US and UAE against being drawn into a conflict by "ill-wishers" Trump echoed the cautiously positive tone on talks, offering a brief but notable signal of potential diplomatic engagement Major FX markets traded in narrow ranges, with Japanese and mainland Chinese markets closed for holidays thinning liquidity across the session The Australian dollar held steady ahead of the RBA rate decision at 0430 GMT, with Governor Bullock scheduled to speak an hour after the announcement Regional equities tracked Wall Street lower, though the absence of Japanese, Chinese and South Korean markets limited overall participation US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold a White House press briefing at 3pm ET on Tuesday, standing in for Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt who has begun maternity leave Crude oil futures gave back modest ground during Asian hours, consolidating after the prior session's gains amid a relatively quiet macro backdrop and mixed signals on the trajectory of the Middle East conflict. The most consequential newsflow of the session pulled in opposite directions. US military officials indicated that Washington is closer to resuming major combat operations against Iran than it was 24 hours earlier, a development that sat uneasily alongside surprising more conciliatory language from Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the events unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz had demonstrated that there is no military solution to the crisis, and described Pakistan-brokered talks as making progress. He added a pointed warning to the United States and the UAE against being drawn into a quagmire by what he called ill-wishers, a formulation that suggests Tehran is seeking to keep diplomatic channels open while resisting further escalation. President Trump has offered a brief but notable echo of the positive tone on negotiations, lending the commentary a degree of credibility it might otherwise have lacked. Currency markets were subdued, with major pairs trading in narrow ranges throughout the session. Participation was thinned by public holidays in Japan and mainland China, reducing liquidity and dampening the usual flow of regional macro catalysts. The Australian dollar drifted quietly in the run-up to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, due at