US durable goods orders for March +0.8 vs +0.5% expected

Prior was -1.4% Durable goods orders ex-transport % vs +0.4% expected Prior ex-transport +0.8% Durable goods ex-defense % vs -1.2% prior Non-defense capital goods ex-air % vs +0.5% expected Prior +0.6% Shipments +1.0% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.3%) The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the most closely watched gauges of U.S. manufacturing activity and business investment. Released about 18 working days after each reference month at 8:30 a.m. ET, it covers new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories of products meant to last three or more years — from aircraft, vehicles, and machinery to computers and appliances. A more comprehensive Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) release follows roughly a week later. Headline durable goods orders are notoriously volatile, swinging on lumpy aircraft and defense bookings, so analysts focus on two cleaner cuts: new orders excluding transportation, which strips out Boeing-driven swings, and nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft — the so-called "core capex" series — which is treated as a real-time proxy for business investment intentions and feeds into GDP estimates. The February 2026 advance report, released April 7 (rescheduled from its original March 25 slot), showed headline durable goods orders fell 1.4% to $315.5 billion, the fourth decline in five months, after a 0.5% drop in January. Transportation equipment drove the weakness, sliding 5.4% to $106.1 billion as nondefense aircraft orders pulled back sharply. Excluding transportation, however, new orders rose 0.8%, suggesting underlying demand was firmer than the headline implied. Excluding defense, orders fell 1.2%. The capex picture was weaker. Nondefense new orders for capital goods plunged 7.4% to $92.9 billion, with related shipments — the input that feeds GDP — down 0.5%. Shipments of total durable goods rose 1.3% to $319.2 billion, and unfilled orders edged up 0.1% to $1.54 trillion, with machinery backlogs extending a seven-month winning streak. The advance report for March is scheduled for release April 29. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.