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LOW IMPACT ForexLive · Apr 29, 08:12 PM

Amazon reports revenue and guidance beat

Shares of Amazon initially fell but are now 1.7% higher on earnings. (now 3.2% lower). Revenue of $181.5B vs $177.3B exp Q2 revenue guide of $194-199B vs $188.9B exp (but this does include Prime Day in Q2 this year) Capex hit $44.2B, up 77% YoY. TTM capex stands at $147.3B, up 67% from $88.0B a year ago. Free cash flow collapsed to $1.2B on a TTM basis, down 95%. Amazon explicitly attributes this to AI investment. Operating cash flow grew 30% to $148.5B TTM — and essentially every incremental do

SIGNALPRO AI · WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN
BEARISH 75% confidence

Amazon's shares may experience further volatility as investors react to the mixed earnings report and significant capital expenditures. The decline in free cash flow could lead to bearish sentiment in the short term.

AI-generated analysis. For educational purposes only — not financial advice.

Shares of Amazon initially fell but are now 1.7% higher on earnings. (now 3.2% lower). Revenue of $181.5B vs $177.3B exp Q2 revenue guide of $194-199B vs $188.9B exp (but this does include Prime Day in Q2 this year) Capex hit $44.2B, up 77% YoY. TTM capex stands at $147.3B, up 67% from $88.0B a year ago. Free cash flow collapsed to $1.2B on a TTM basis, down 95%. Amazon explicitly attributes this to AI investment. Operating cash flow grew 30% to $148.5B TTM — and essentially every incremental dollar is being redeployed into data centers. The funding shift is the most important development in the quarter. Long-term debt jumped from $65.6B to $119.1B in three months — a $53.4B issuance versus $746M in Q1 2025. The most cash-generative company on earth just borrowed $53B in a quarter. Operating cash flow alone can no longer fund the cycle. This mirrors Alphabet's recent $20B bond (including a 100-year tranche) and signals the hyperscaler complex is transitioning from self-funded to capital-markets-funded. That's a regime change. Cash climbed to $101.8B — Amazon is building a war chest for what's coming. AWS revenue hit $37.6B, up 28% YoY — the fastest growth in 15 quarters. Operating margin expanded to 37.7% from 35.0% last quarter. Like Azure (39% CC) and Google Cloud (~50% expected), AWS is supply-constrained: 28% is a ceiling set by capacity, not demand. Margin expansion despite massive depreciation drag suggests revenue is still outrunning the depreciation curve — for now. Custom silicon is now a real business. Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro hit a $20B annual run rate, growing triple digits. Amazon deployed 2.1 million+ AI chips over 12 months, more than half Trainium. Forward commitments are staggering: Anthropic signed for up to 5 GW of Trainium, OpenAI committed to 2 GW ramping in 2027. The OpenAI deal is particularly notable — Microsoft's flagship AI partner is diversifying to Amazon. Trainium is now competitive at frontier-model scale. Bedrock processed more tokens in Q1 than all prior years combined, with customer spend +170% QoQ. That's exponential adoption and likely Amazon's answer to Microsoft's $37B AI run-rate disclosure. Q2 guidance hints at margin pressure. Revenue guided $194–199B (+16–19%); operating income $20–24B. The midpoint implies only 15% operating income growth, well below Q1's 30%. D&A was $18.9B, up 33% YoY — depreciation will accelerate as $44B+ in new quarterly capex enters service. The wide $4B operating income range suggests Amazon itself is uncertain about the depreciation curve. No full-year capex or 2027 guide. Q1's pace implies 2026 capex of $210–230B for Amazon alone, pushing the four-name hyperscaler total to $650–700B+. With 7 GW of contracted compute coming in 2027, Amazon's 2027 capex could run $250–300B+ — larger than Australia's entire federal budget. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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