investingLive Americas FX news wrap 29 Apr: Fed Holds Rates, Split Tilts Hawkish. USD up

GOOG, MSFT, META: Options market braced for $1 trillion market cap swing after the bell Trump: It is a good time to cut rates Powell says he will remain as a Federal Reserve Governor Powell: Labor demand has softened clearly So long JPOW and thanks for all the memes What are the changes in the FOMC statement from March to April 2026 The full statement from the Federal Reserve April FOMC meeting FOMC decision: No change in rates as expected No one understands just how big the AI capex boom is. Some perspective Trump: I will not lift the naval blockade without a deal on the nuclear program Bitcoin finds willing sellers near resistance targets, and the technical tilt shifts down. Bank of Canada's Macklem: Under base case, changes to the policy rate likely to be minimal EIA weekly crude oil inventories -6234K vs -231K expected How and why all the Bank of Canada forecasts changed in the latest MPR Bank of Canada statement from the April 2026 rate decision Bank of Canada rate decision: Hold at 2.25% as expected US March Trade advanced goods trade balance -$87.8B versus $-86.95 billion estimate US March housing starts 1.502m vs 1.400m expected US durable goods orders for March +0.8% vs +0.5% expected Germany April preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expected The FOMC left rates unchanged, but the decision revealed a meaningful split beneath the surface. The vote came in at 8–4, with Miran dissenting in favor of a rate cut, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan supported holding rates but opposed adding an easing bias to the statement. That group effectively pushed back against signaling near-term rate cuts—giving the decision a hawkish tilt, especially heading into the leadership transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh. That said, the broader committee still leans dovish. Eight members supported maintaining the easing bias, meaning the path of least resistance still points toward eventual rate cuts—even if the timing remains uncertain. As for Powell, this marked his final meeting as Fed Chair. He noted that he intends to remain at the Fed in a lower-profile role, particularly as legal challenges involving the institution continue to play out. Key Takeaways from his press conference: Inflation still a problem: Core PCE seen at 3.2%, headline PCE 3.5%; near-term inflation expectations are rising, partly driven by higher energy prices Labor market cooling but stable: Demand has softened, job growth is slowing, but the labor market is not deteriorating sharply Consumer remains resilient: Spending continues to hold up despite higher prices Policy stance = patient: No urgency to remove the easing bias No support for rate hikes right now Debate was “vigorous,” but the majority favored no change in guidance Next 30–60 days of data will be key Internal divide at the Fed: Some favor moving toward neutral to reflect markets Others prefer waiting in case policy needs to reverse Bottom line on policy: Fed is not in a hurry to shift direction Inflation is “misbehaving,” but labor is stabilizing → keeps Fed cautious and data-dependent Tone / Bias: Slightly hawkish hold → inflation concerns + no rush to ease But not outright hawkish → no appetite for hikes Market implication: Supports higher yields / stronger USD bias near term Keeps volatility tied to incoming inflation and labor data As such, yields did indeed move higher. Looking at the yield curve: 2 year yield 3.946%, rose 10.3 basis points 10 year yield 4.429%, rose 7.6 basis points 30 year yield 4.999%, rose 5.5 basis points US stocks closed little changed. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq moved 0.04% on the day with the S&P down -0.04% and the Nasdaq up 0.04%. The Dow and the Russell 2000 the story was less encouraging with each falling by around -0.60^. The USD moved higher with the USDJPY breaking to the upside and reaching a new high for the year going into the close above 160.45. The EURUSD is trading just under its 200 day MA at 1.1674 (at 1.1671). The Bank of Canada also met today, and kep